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四十年的数据揭露了有关全球化的三个谣言

40 Years of Data Suggests 3 Myths About Globalization

四十年的数据揭露了有关全球化的三个谣言

Three beliefs about globalization have propagated since the early 1980s. First, that globalization leads to a reduction in global inequality. Second, that high income growth among the richest will lift the incomes of the poorest. Third, that there is no alternative to rising inequality without turning our backs on trade and technology. The recently released World Inequality Report, the first research study to comprehensively examine wealth and income inequality trends across rich and emerging countries over approximately 40 years, dispels these notions.

早在20世纪80年代就流传着关于全球化的三个观念。首先,全球化会减少全球的不平等。其次,富人的高收入状况会改善贫困人群的收入状况。第三,如果不依赖贸易和技术,不平等的状况是不可避免的。最近发布的《世界不平等报告》,首次通过全面研究发达国家和发展中国家40年间财富和收入的不平等趋势,消除了以上这些观念。

Globalization has led to a rise in global income inequality, not a reduction

全球化加剧了全球收入的不平等状况,而不是削弱了。

Inequality between individuals across the world is the result of two competing forces: inequality between countries and inequality within countries. For example, strong growth in China and India contributed to significant global income growth, and therefore, decreased inequality between countries. However, inequality within these countries rose sharply. The top 1% income share rose from 7% to 22% in India, and 6% to 14% in China between 1980 and 2016.

世界各地个体间的不平等是有两个因素作用的结果:国家间的不平等和国内的不平等。例如,中国和印度的强劲经济增长显著的改善了全球的收入水平,从而降低了国家间的不平等。但是,这两国国内的不平等状况却与日俱增。1980年至2016年间,两个国家前财富前1%的人群收入的占比,印度从7%上涨到22%,而中国则从6%上涨到14%。

Until recently, it has been impossible to know which of these two forces dominates globally, because of lack of data on inequality trends within countries, which many governments do not release publicly or uniformly. The World Inequality Report 2018 addresses this issue, relying on systematic, comparable, and transparent inequality statistics from high-income and emerging countries.

直到最近,由于许多政府不能发布或有效的发布有关不平等的数据,我们仍旧不清楚哪一个因素在全球更具影响力。《2018全球不平等报告》(尝试)通过研究高收入国家和发展中国家的系统性、可类比和简明的不平等统计数据解决这个问题。

The conclusion is striking. Between 1980 and 2016, inequality between the world’s citizens increased, despite strong growth in emerging markets. Indeed, the share of global income accrued by the richest 1%, grew from 16% in 1980 to 20% by 2016. Meanwhile the income share of the poorest 50% hovered around 9%. The top 1% – individuals earning more than $13,500 per month – globally captured twice as much income growth as the bottom 50% of the world population over this period.

报告的结论十分惊人。在1980至2016年间,尽管发展中国家的经济取得了先出增长,全球各地公民间的不平等状况不降反升。实际情况是,全球财富前1%人群的收入占比,从1980年的16%上升到2016年的20%。与此同时,半数贫困人群的占比一直徘徊在9%。前1%人群人均月收入为13500美元,其增长幅度是全球收入后50%人口增长的2倍。

Income doesn’t trickle down

收入并未发生涓滴(涓滴效应)

The second belief contests that high growth at the top is necessary to achieve some growth at the bottom of the distribution, in other words that rising inequality is necessary to elevate standards of living among the poorest. However, this idea is at odds with the data. When we compare Europe with the U.S., or China with India, it is clear that countries that experienced a higher rise in inequality were not better at lifting the incomes of their poorest citizens. Indeed, the U.S. is the extreme counterargument to the myth of trickle down: while incomes grew by more than 600% for the top 0.001% of Americans since 1980, the bottom half of the population was actually shut off from economic growth, with